Africa’s Turn

Edward Miguel believes that Africa is on the crest of an economic wave, and in this book he discusses the continent’s potential to capitalise on recent economic growth. He argues that Africa has seen a period of economic growth since 2000, and a rise in per capita income, and he suggests that the projections are for more growth which, if sustained, could enable Africa to grow out of poverty.

He discusses whether increasing democratisation, international investment, and rising commodity prices will continue to make Africa an attractive investment opportunity which will bring necessary finance and expertise to the continent. He goes on to consider whether this expansion could reduce the likelihood of conflict and further strengthen Africa’s potential for growth. He examines the challenges to growth: conflict, reliance on commodity prices, and the impact of climate change on crops.

Miguel invited international experts to comment on his essay, with interesting results. Although the contributors do not always agree with his assessment and his proposed solutions, they share his optimism and raise some extremely interesting arguments and thought-provoking suggestions which add value to the discussion.

He questions the relationship between increasing democratisation and economic growth. Has improved democratisation been helpful in attracting foreign investment and trade? What impact might it have on internal markets and growth? He asks if better governance and transparency would continue to attract investment, and he considers recent investment from Asia, suggesting possible reasons for it and assessing its extent, impact, and benefits. He questions whether growth is threatened as increasing trade and export potential is compromised by international trade agreements and national subsidy programmes that support national farmers. He considers whether opening new routes to investment would create a level playing field and maximise the potential for Africa to trade and grow.

In an interesting discussion of the role of foreign aid, he asks whether it really can enable regions to break out of poverty, and he considers the contrary view that people are still living in poverty despite the provision of aid worth billions of dollars. He goes on to consider whether aid has played a role in recent economic growth in Africa.

Miguel addresses the obstacles to sustained economic progress that are posed by conflict, and considers whether a couple of decades of economic growth could reduce the likelihood of new conflicts emerging. He addresses the risk factors that could affect the economy and could lead to renewed conflicts, and he discusses the merits of supporting Rapid Conflict Prevention (RCP) planning as a means of reducing the risk of conflict. RCP is also presented as a useful tool for addressing the problems of increasing energy consumption and climate change, by supporting preparedness, and investing in sustainable livelihoods. He recommends this type of model as a means of attracting investment and maintaining a healthy sustainable economy. It would have been useful to have included more opposing views in this volume, or more practical examples of the application of this sort of model.

The book includes some wide-ranging responses from several contributors. While most of them share his optimism, they point out some potential threats, challenges, and omissions to Miguel’s view. I particularly enjoyed Ken Bates’ discussion on the potential for growth within the African economy. He presents a fascinating portrayal of a thriving informal economy with an abundance of entrepreneurism which, coupled with new mobile technologies, could serve as a route out of poverty, as an alternative to reliance on donor agencies or international trade agreements.

Edward Miguel concludes that the trends are encouraging: the gains are fragile, but the progress is real. He acknowledges that there are very real obstacles to this growth and urges that rigorous evaluation and monitoring programmes should be implemented as a way of encouraging political accountability,
empowering and obliging officials to push for reform and transparency in allocating funds.

The book offers a compelling account of Africa’s economic progress in recent years, and one cannot help but feel excited and optimistic about the potential for more growth: could Africa be on the brink of a major change? Miguel’s optimism, though often shared by the contributors, is also tempered by them. Although they are keen to point out the discrepancies in Miguel’s argument, as well as the omissions, for the most part they share his positive assessment of the potential for progress, and they offer useful insights and solutions. Miguel puts forward his case in a clearly presented format, with plenty of useful examples which support his optimism, and the contributors offer interesting responses that make the book all the more enjoyable.

It is written in an accessible style and in language that engages the reader. I found the book useful in expanding my knowledge about recent economic performance across Africa, and I enjoyed Miguel’s discussion of the way forward. One weakness is that he does not set out to represent the many and varied communities across the continent, and their specific needs and aspirations. The experts’ contributions were, however, helpful in adding context to the discussion.

I would recommend this book to policy makers who already have a good understanding of economics, rather than readers looking for a rounded discussion of the issues, as it is weak in explaining and discussing views contrary to the author’s own in any depth.